Democrat Darren Soto’s congressional seat has been a tempting target for Republicans ever since his first victory in 2016. But Soto, a former state lawmaker, remains the favorite as he attempts to secure a fifth term in Congress.
GOP congressional candidates have never beaten Soto, but they have done progressively better in the district that includes all of Osceola County, southern Orange County and eastern Polk County after losing to him by 16 points in 2018. Republican challengers lost to Soto by 12 points in 2020 and by 7 points in 2022, even as redistricting made
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